Formula 1 · Expected Points Model
The official unofficial home of F1 predictions
Like xG in football, F1XPs quantifies how many points each driver should score — combining car pace, driver talent, track fit, conditions and more into a single expected-points figure.
Round 3 · 2026
Suzuka International Racing Course · 53 laps · 5.807 km
Points each driver is expected to score — ranked by car pace, track fit & conditions
After Round 2 + Sprint · China · Actual pts vs F1XPs accumulated expected pts
After Round 2 + Sprint · China
24 rounds · March to December
If a driver consistently outperforms their F1XPs, they're beating the model — whether through brilliance, luck, or circumstances the model hasn't yet accounted for. Over a season, the gap between F1XPs and real points is the most honest measure of performance.